Week 5: Good calls, bad calls

This week I didn’t make my usual list of predictions, instead I opted to let my rankings do the talking. There were some significant missteps on my part, but also some pretty good calls. Here’s a recap of the ‘good calls, bad calls’ of week 5.

Good Calls:

Shaun Hill – QB Detroit
I put Hill in the top 10 (QB #10) expecting him to have a very good game against the St. Louis Rams. Hill did not let me down throwing for 227 yards and 3 TDs. This might be the last we hear from Hill, as Matthew Stafford may be ready to return after the Lions bye in week 8. Hill will almost certainly start against the NY Giants this week in the Meadowlands. But if you haven’t picked him up by now, don’t waste your time.

Brett Favre – QB Minnesota
Not many people had Favre as high as I did in this week’s rankings (QB #11). Favre looked terrible in the first half on Monday night, but showed much more aggressiveness in the second half. Favre finished the night with 264 yards passing and 3 TDs. The arrival of Randy Moss will help Favre tremendously. Moss gives Favre a deep threat, and Moss opens up the middle of the field for Percy Harvin. Favre should now be considered a serviceable fantasy football starting QB each week.

Mark Sanchez – QB NY Jets
After three consecutive weeks of two or more TD passes, Sanchez (QB #17) struggled on Monday night against the Minnesota Vikings. Sanchez was held without a TD pass and managed just 191 yards on 44 passing attempts. Sanchez and the Jets travel to Denver this week where they should be able to run the ball against a weak Broncos run defense. Don’t look for Sanchez to be the type of QB to give you multiple TDs each week.

Felix Jones – RB Dallas
Some fantasy football prognosticators continue to put Marion Barber ahead of Jones, but I didn’t. The Cowboys found out this weekend that Jones is a much better runner than Barber and expect Jones to get more of the carries going forward.

Brandon Lloyd – WR Denver
I have told countless number of people to pick-up, or keep Lloyd on their team. After years of knocking around from team-to-team, Lloyd has proven to be a great WR for Denver. His 135 yards and 2 TDs against the Baltimore Ravens should signal to all fantasy football owners that Lloyd is an every week starter. If you're still on the fence about Lloyd, consider this, Orton targeted him 14 times on Sunday. Yes, he's going to be big the rest of the season.    

Bad Calls:

Peyton Manning / Aaron Rodgers / Matt Schaub
I lumped these three guys together because they made up 60% of my top 5 QBs for the week. Together they accounted for one TD (Rodgers 5-yard TD pass to Donald Lee). The trio had good match-ups, but struggled to find the end zone. These guys will all be back in the top 5 again, we’ll call this week an anomaly.

Kyle Orton – QB Denver
A week after I proclaimed Orton a weekly top 10 QB, I put him at #15 because he was facing the Baltimore Ravens. Orton proved me wrong once again throwing for 314 yards and 2 TDs. I promise you, unless Orton has an injury, he will be in my top 10 every week.     

Ryan Mathews – RB San Diego
I have been wrong about Mathews from the day I started prepping my first cheatsheet. Mathews was supposed to be the guy in San Diego when LaDainian Tomlinson left. Five games into the season, and Mathews is still fighting to make a name for himself. I had him ranked in the top 10 (RB #10) this week, but again he failed to produce much. His 59 yards rushing led the team, but his 9 carries were second on the team behind Mike Tolbert (12 carries). I still believe Mathews will display flashes of greatness yet this year, but its taken longer than his fantasy football owners would have hoped.

Week 5: Fantasy Football rankings -- QB, RB, WR/TEs

QB
1. Peyton Manning vs. Kansas City
2. Drew Brees at Arizona
3. Aaron Rodgers at Washington
4. Philip Rivers at Oakland
5. Matt Schaub vs. NY Giants
6. Eli Manning at Houston
7. Matt Ryan at Cleveland
8. Tony Romo vs. Tennessee
9. Joe Flacco vs. Denver
10. Shaun Hill vs. St. Louis
11. Brett Favre at NY Jets
12. Sam Bradford at Detroit
13. Donovan McNabb vs. Green Bay
14. David Garrard at Buffalo
15. Kyle Orton at Baltimore
16. Kevin Kolb at San Francisco
17. Mark Sanchez vs. Minnesota
18. Carson Palmer vs. Tampa Bay
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jacksonville
20. Josh Freeman at Cincinnati

RB
1. Steven Jackson at Detroit
2. Maurice Jones-Drew at Buffalo
3. Arian Foster vs. NY Giants
4. Adrian Peterson at NY Jets
5. Chris Johnson at Dallas
6. Frank Gore vs. Philadelphia
7. Cedric Benson vs. Tampa Bay
8. Ahmad Bradshaw at Houston
9. Peyton Hillis vs. Atlanta
10. Ryan Mathews vs. Oakland
11. Joseph Addai vs. Kansas City
12. DeAngelo Williams vs. Chicago
13. Jahvid Best vs. St. Louis
14. Ray Rice vs. Denver
15. Jamaal Charles at Indianapolis
16. Ryan Torain vs. Green Bay
17. Beanie Wells vs. New Orleans
18. Michael Turner at Cleveland
19. Mike Tolbert vs. Oakland
20. Michael Bush vs. San Diego
21. Matt Forte at Carolina
22. Fred Jackson vs. Jacksonville
23. Chris Ivory at Arizona
24. LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Minnesota
25. Thomas Jones at Indianapolis
26. LeSean McCoy at San Francisco
27. Felix Jones vs. Tennessee
28. CJ Spiller vs. Jacksonville
29. Brandon Jackson at Washington
30. Willis McGahee vs. Denver
31. Marion Barber vs. Tennessee
32. Tim Hightower vs. New Orleans
33. Ladell Betts at Arizona
34. Mike Bell at San Francisco
35. John Kuhn at Washington
36. Correll Buckhalter at Baltimore
37. Jonathan Stewart vs. Chicago
38. Cadillac Williams at Cincinnati
39. Shonn Greene vs. Minnesota
40. Jason Snelling at Cleveland

WR/TE
1. Reggie Wayne vs. Kansas City
2. Calvin Johnson vs. St. Louis
3. Roddy White at Cleveland
4. Austin Collie vs. Kansas City*
5. Randy Moss at NY Jets
6. Miles Austin vs. Tennessee
7. Andre Johnson vs. NY Giants**
8. Hakeem Nicks at Houston
9. Antonio Gates vs. Oakland
10. Anquan Boldin vs. Denver
11. Dallas Clark vs. Kansas City
12. DeSean Jackson at San Francisco
13. Greg Jennings at Washington
14. Mark Clayton at Detroit
15. Pierre Garcon vs. Kansas City
16. Terrell Owens vs. Tampa Bay
17. Jermichael Finley at Washington
18. Brandon Lloyd at Baltimore
19. Lance Moore at Arizona
20. Donald Driver at Washington
21. Chad OchoCinco vs. Tampa Bay
22. Dustin Keller vs. Minnesota
23. Marques Colston at Arizona
24. Malcom Floyd at Oakland
25. Percy Harvin at NY Jets
26. Chris Cooley vs. Green Bay
27. Larry Fitzgerald vs. New Orleans
28. Steve Johnson vs. Jacksonville
29. Braylon Edwards vs. Minnesota
30. Jeremy Maclin at San Francisco
31. Mike Sims-Walker at Buffalo
32. Steve Smith (NY) at Houston
33. Derrick Mason vs. Denver
34. Zack Miller vs. San Diego
35. Dwayne Bowe at Indianapolis
36. Kenny Britt at Dallas
37. Santana Moss vs. Green Bay
38. Eddie Royal at Baltimore
39. Kevin Walter vs. NY Giants
40. Mario Manningham at Houston
41. Santonio Holmes vs. Minnesota
42. Jabar Gaffney at Baltimore
43. Visanthe Shiancoe at NY Jets
44. Mike Williams (TB) at Cincinnati
45. Louis Murphy vs. San Diego
46. Dez Bryant vs. Tennessee
47. Devery Henderson at Arizona
48. Lee Evans vs. Jacksonville
49. Johnny Knox at Carolina
50. Vernon Davis vs. Philadelphia

Week 4: Good calls, bad calls

I’ve had my moments this year, both good and bad, with my fantasy football predictions. Week 4 was filled with good calls, including a ridiculously close prediction involving Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski. However, the week wasn’t without its misses. A certain RB in Seattle let me down again and now he’s second string to a guy who was in his wedding. It’s all covered in this week’s ‘good calls, bad calls’.

Bad Calls:

Justin Forsett – RB Seattle
Week 4 was the perfect opportunity for Forsett to solidify his status as Seattle’s top RB. Instead, he ran for just 65 yards on 19 carries. While Forsett didn’t appear in this week’s column, I have predicted big things from him in recent posts and on Twitter. I was clearly wrong because the Seahawks went and traded for Marshawn Lynch. Lynch, who was a groomsman in Forsett’s wedding, will now take over the starting role. Forsett meanwhile, will now go from feature back to 3-5 carries a game. It was clear Sunday against the St. Louis Rams that Seattle needed a more physical RB. They got it now in Lynch and he should be a good starting option in most leagues.

Malcom Floyd – WR San Diego
I expected a big game from Floyd against the Arizona Cardinals. However, it turns out the Chargers didn’t need him. He caught two balls for 45 yards and San Diego still won 41-10. Antonio Gates, the running game and San Diego’s defense were the reasons for the big win. I will take credit for recognizing that the Chargers would have an offensive explosion against the Cardinals, but I guess anyone could have seen that coming.

Mike Tolbert / Ryan Mathews – RBs San Diego
I would have bet you that Ryan Mathews would get more carries than Tolbert against Arizona. And I would have lost. Tolbert nearly doubled the number of Mathews’ carries (16 vs. 9) and it showed up in the stats. Tolbert ended with 100 yards rushing and a TD, while Mathews finished with 55 yard and a score. On Twitter, I recommended fantasy football owners sit Tolbert in week 4 with Mathews back returning. Hopefully on this occasion you didn’t listen.

Good Calls:

Bruce Gradkowski - QB Oakland
I’m sure my Gradkowski call had some people checking the time stamp of the blog post. I proclaimed Gradkowski a solid fantasy football starting QB in week 4, going so far as to recommend benching Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning and Kyle Orton in favor of Gradkowski. It turns out the Raiders QB was better than McNabb and Manning, and almost as good as Orton. Also in the article, I said Gradkowski would throw for 275+ yards and 2 TDs – he ended with 278 yards and 2 TDs. Now, even though Gradkowski didn’t out-perform Orton, that’s still a pretty darn good call.

Brandon Lloyd – WR Denver
My prediction that Lloyd would lead the current quartet of Denver WRs in receiving yards this season took another step towards reality on Sunday. Lloyd’s ability to stretch the field for the Broncos has made him the most valuable WR on their roster. Lloyd finished week 4 with 11 catches for 115 yards against a very good Tennessee Titians defense. Lloyd has three 100-yard games and leads the NFL in receiving yards with 454. We should learn a lot about Lloyd and the Broncos passing game when they face the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, followed by the NY Jets in week 6.

Greg Jennings – WR Green Bay
The Packers looked to be cruising along Sunday against the Detroit Lions, with 3 first half TD tosses by QB Aaron Rodgers. One of those TD passes ended up in the hands Jennings, but that was about it. Jennings is a frustrating WR for fantasy football owners. His 2 catches for 25 yards are not what you want to see from a WR1. It’s not just the lack of catches by Jennings (12 recs.) that’s concerning, it’s the lack of targets. Through 4 games, Jennings has 26 targets, nearly half as many as WR Roddy White (50 targets). With that said, as long as Jennings keeps scoring TDs, the yards aren’t as critical and fantasy football owners will be happy.

Jahvid Best/Matt Forte
Both RBs were non-factors in their games on Sunday. You have likely seen the best of Best and Forte in the first three weeks of the season. Both the Lions and Bears have disastrous OLs and that is having an impact on Best and Forte’s numbers. Sell both these guys if you can find a buyer. (BTW-Todd Collins is starting in place of Jay Cutler on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. Forte will find it even more difficult to run against the Panthers defense).

Put it in Print: Week 4 Predictions

If you're going to say it, why not put it in print. Here is a snapshot of what's going on in my head heading into week 4.

Bruce Gradkowski - QB Oakland
Even with two ailing WRs (Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey), I like Gradkowski better than Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning and Kyle Orton in week 4. Oakland faces Houston this week, which has given up a ton of passing yards in the first three weeks. If Murphy and Heyward-Bey are on the field Sunday, look for a 275+ yard, 2 TD afternoon for Gradkowski.

Jahvid Best - RB Detroit
Everyone is wondering if Best is for real. Through 3 weeks, he has 5 TDs and leads the Lions in rushing and receiving yards. Despite those numbers, Best is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. Until the Lions start passing the ball with some consistency, consider Best a player a RB2 or flex player -- at best.

Matt Forte - RB Chicago
If Forte was on my roster, I would sell him high right now. Forte is currently a top 10 RB in most leagues, but his stats are deceptive. Forte has 3 TDs this year including an 89 yarder against Detroit. Take a closer at Forte’s stats and you’ll notice he’s only averaging 2.8 yards per carry. Don’t expect Forte to stay in the top 10 RB list the entire year. Sell now.

Fred Taylor - RB New England
A toe injury will keep Taylor out of the line-up Sunday and this might be the last time we mention Taylor’s name. BenJarvus Green-Ellis will likely get the start and if he performs well look for him to remain New England’s feature back. If BGE runs wild in Miami on Monday night, it might be time to dump Taylor all together.

Brandon Lloyd - WR Denver
In three games this year, Lloyd has two 100+ yard games. He’s clearly the Broncos best deep threat and I expect him lead Denver in receiving yards this year. With Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney working the underneath routes, Lloyd and Demaryius Thomas will stretch the field. With the rookie Thomas still learning, the veteran Lloyd is Orton’s favorite deep target

Greg Jennings - WR Green Bay
It has been a couple frustrating years for fantasy football owners who drafted Jennings in the early rounds. In 2008, he managed 4 TDs and last year just 2 TDs. This year, he’s already scored twice but has only 10 catches. Jennings plays in an offense where QB Aaron Rodgers spreads the ball around to several different receivers. I’m not suggesting benching Jennings, but he’s a WR that will continue to frustrate his owners. He has a tendency to disappear during games. Look for him to be solid this week against the Lions, but going forward, be prepared to endure several weeks where he barely cracks the 50 yard receiving mark.

Malcom Floyd - WR San Diego
I was all ready to name Legedu Naanee the best WR in San Diego, that was before I watched a complete Chargers game. Floyd is clearly the better of the two WRs and looks to be on pace for a solid season. With Vincent Jackson still holding out, Floyd has emerged as Philip River’s favorite WR target. Floyd is coming off back-to-back games of nearly 100 yards and a TD. Considering the number of red zone targets Floyd gets each game, he should be looked at as solid WR2, and maybe even a fringe WR1.

Ryan Mathews - RB San Diego
Mathews has been slow to get going for the Chargers, but when he’s played, he’s looked like the real deal. The problem for Mathews has been two fold, fumbles and injury. In the two games he has played in, the rookie fumbled in both and hurt his ankle. After missing week 3, Mathews looks ready to play in week 4 and should be a good start against the Arizona Cardinals. Don’t sell Mathews yet, he’s just getting started.

Jeremy Maclin - WR Philadelphia
A lot of fantasy football owners are wondering if Maclin can keep up his torrid TD pace. After 3 weeks, Maclin has already matched his TD output from the two previous years (2010: 4 TDs, 2009: 4 TDs, 2008: 4 TDs). Maclin is like Greg Jennings, he has big play potential, but doesn’t tally a lot of yards. While there will be frustrating weeks for Maclin owners, I like him as an every week starter.