Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Week 3: Good calls, bad calls

I went big this week trying hard to set myself apart from the rest of the fantasy football prognosticators. It turns out I’m still a work in progress. I was right on most of the week three predictions, but my boldest prediction fell short (albeit not by much). Here’s a recap.
Bad Calls:
Justin Forsett – RB Seattle
Forsett was my big pick this week, my would-be defining moment. I suggested that Forsett would have a breakout game against a very good San Diego defense. I had a feeling Seattle would win the game and Forsett would be the reason. It turns out his RB mate Leon Washington was the difference with two kick-off returns for TDs. Forsett did get 20 touches (17 carries/3 catches), tallying 94 yards. It was by far the most touches he’s seen this year. I still believe Forsett will be a valuable fantasy football RB over the next several weeks. He has a favorable schedule ahead (@STL, Bye, @Chicago, Arizona, @Oakland, NY Giants,@Arizona) and is clearly the best RB option for the first place Seahawks.
Beanie Wells – RB Arizona
I thought it would take Wells a couple weeks to be a factor in Arizona’s running game. It turned out he was ready to contribute in week 3. It was revealed earlier in the week that Wells underwent knee surgery. I didn’t think he would play much, let alone lead the team with 14 carries. His 75 yards were a surprise and he looked ready to retake the number one RB role. Once again, I cannot figure out the Arizona RB situation, go figure.
Brett Favre – QB Minnesota
I thought this would be the game Brett Favre threw TD #500. It turns out Favre is still one TD short of 500, which means he managed just one TD against Detroit. Favre did connect with Percy Harvin on a nice TD, but that was it. The Vikings enter their bye this week and when they return in two weeks, their schedule is brutal. Games @NY Jets, vs. Dallas, @New England and @Green Bay will put Favre to the test. I would start looking for an alternative starting QB if you have Favre.
Good Calls:

Joe Flacco – QB Baltimore
After two rough games against the NY Jets and Cincinnati Bengals, Flacco had no problem dismantling the Cleveland Browns. Flacco's 262 yards and 3 TDs (all to Anquan Boldin) was his best statistical performance of the year. Feel good about keeping Flacco in your starting line-up (even this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers). 

Cincinnati Bengals defense
They could have been better, but 4 turnovers and a sack is still pretty good. Carolina played it safe most of the game with Jimmy Clausen making his pro debut. The Bengals defense is a good start any week, but the next two should be great. The Bengals face Cleveland this week and Tampa Bay the week after.

Kyle Orton – QB Denver
I have liked Orton from the beginning of the season, but what he did Sunday was unreal. The Broncos QB threw for a mind-boggling 476 yards and a TD against the Indianapolis Colts. Orton is a solid fantasy football starter and looks to be a consistent performer each week.

Ryan Torain - RB Washington
I wanted to get on the record with Torain last week, but I had no idea he would lead the Redskins in rushing. His 7 carries for 46 yards was nothing great, but it could signal a change in Washington's backfield. Owners of Clinton Portis should grab Torain now.

Cedric Benson – RB Cincinnati
I expected 100+ yards rushing out of Benson this week, I missed by 19 yards. However, Benson did reward fantasy football owners with two TDs. Look for Benson to be used more heavily as the Bengals try and figure out its passing game.

Brandon Jackson – RB Green Bay
Green Bay's running game is non-existent without Ryan Grant. Jackson proved on Monday night that he is not an every down RB. If Jackson is one of your starting RBs, start looking for an alternative.

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