Fantasy Football: The Aaron Rodgers Dilemma

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP fantasy football season. He’s the top scorer in most leagues, he has 30 points more than Saints quarterback Drew Brees (53 more than Tom Brady) and he’s scored 20 or more fantasy points in 14 of his 15 games this year.

For many fantasy teams, including my own, Rodgers is the reason we’re still chasing a championship. But this week we’re facing a dilemma that has some of us considering benching our star quarterback.

Wait, what?

I’m I really thinking about benching Rodgers with the fantasy season at a crucial juncture?

Yes, the thought has crossed my mind.

Before you call me crazy, hear me out. The idea is not as far-fetched as it seems when you look at how Week 16 sets up.

Rodgers and the Packers host the Chicago Bears on Sunday night, which is a very favorable matchup for Rodgers. The Bears currently rank 26^th against the pass and Rodgers lit them up for 297 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 3.

But the main issue facing Rodgers’ owners this week isn’t his opponent, it’s the schedule. When the Packers/Bears game kickoffs on Sunday night, the Packers may not be playing for anything.

The NFL scheduled most of the Week 16 games on Saturday because Christmas falls on a Sunday this year. Included on Saturday slate of game is a 3:15 p.m. (CST) matchup between the San Francisco 49ers (11-3) and Seattle Seahawks (7-7). The game is intriguing to the Packers because with a Niners loss, the Packers would clinch the NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Do you see the dilemma? A Niners loss would make Sunday’s Packers/Bears game meaningless. Therefore, Rodgers may not play the entire game. The Packers might choose to protect him from injury and sit him down. Which isn’t a bad idea considering how banged up the Packers offensive line is right now.

A simple solution for Rodgers’ owners would be to bench Rodgers for his back-up Matt Flynn. The problem with that strategy is Rodgers will likely play at least half of the game, maybe more depending on the score and how often he’s getting hit. There are too many variables to say, start Flynn.

The schedule makers also didn’t do Rodgers’ owners any favors when they scheduled the Niners game at 3:15 p.m. (CST). By the time that game ends, all ten noon games will be long over, as will the two other games scheduled for 3:15. That leaves just two games remaining in Week 16, the Bears/Packers game on Sunday night and the Falcons/Saints game on Monday night.

I would venture a guess and say that if you own Rodgers, you probably don’t have Drew Brees or Matt Ryan. That leaves Caleb Hanie has the only other starting quarterback option, if Rodgers and the Packers aren’t playing for anything Sunday night.

I cannot in good conscience recommend that you start Hanie in your league championship. I don’t care how bad the Packers pass defense is right now.

So, with all that said, we’re back to our original dilemma: Should you start Aaron Rodgers this week?

Unless you have a back-up quarterback who’s a top 10 fantasy scorer, absolutely you start Rodgers this weekend.

Rodgers playing just a portion of a game is still better than most fantasy quarterbacks who play an entire game.

Good luck and go Niners!

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers: 6 games to a superstar

At this point and time in history – as you read this – Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. That could change next season, but as of right now, it’s hard to argue that anyone is better.

Rodgers, who is 27-years-old, just finished off what was one of the best six game stretches I’ve ever seen. He took the Packers from the brink of elimination to Super Bowl champions. Along the way Rodgers has made Packers fans forget about Brett Favre and established himself as an elite quarterback.

The biggest knock on Rodgers has been his inability to win close games (2-12 in games decided by four points or less). And before this season the Packers had failed to win a playoff game with Rodgers at quarterback (0-1 in two seasons). Rodgers now has a playoff record of 4-1, a Super Bowl ring and a Super Bowl MVP trophy.

To truly appreciate what Rodgers and the Packers accomplished this season, I broke down Green Bay’s final six games of the season. Two of the games were must-win regular season games, the other four were playoff games, including Super Bowl XLV. They are the six games that made Rodgers an elite quaterback.

Week 16 – New York Giants at Green Bay
After losing two straight games on the road (Detroit and New England), the Packers returned to Lambeau Field to face the New York Giants. Rodgers sat out the previous game against New England after suffering a concession against Detroit. In a game the Packers needed to keep their playoff hopes alive, Rodgers was spectacular. The Packers dismantled the Giants 45-17 behind Rodgers' monster performance. Rodgers completed 25 of 37 passes for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns with zero interceptions. Rodgers’ near flawless performance got the Packers back on track and one game away from clinching the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs.

Week 17 – Chicago Bears at Green Bay
With the number two seed in the NFC playoffs already in their grasp, the Bears had nothing to play for in the season finale against the Packers. Bears head coach Lovie Smith said he wouldn’t rest his players and stood by his word once the game kicked off. With everything on the line for the Packers, Rodgers was not the same quarterback he was a week earlier. He completed 19 of 28 passes, managing just 229 yards passing and one interception. But a late touchdown pass to tight end Donald Lee was the difference. The Packers would win the season finale 10-3 on Rodgers’ late touchdown pass, securing them a spot in the postseason.

Wild Card round – Green Bay at Philadelphia Eagles
If the sixth seeded Packers were going to win the Super Bowl, they were going to have to do it on the road. Their first stop was a trip out East to Philadelphia for a match-up with the third-seeded Eagles, who the Packers beat in week one. Rodgers and the Packers offense jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, with Rodgers tossing two first half touchdowns. He finished 18 of 27 with 180 yards passing, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Packers advance, beating the Eagles 21-16.

Divisional round – Green Bay at Atlanta
With one playoff win under his belt, Rodgers looked relaxed and locked in against Atlanta. After a sluggish start by the Packers, Rodgers and the offense exploded in the second quarter. Rodgers threw two touchdowns in the quarter and had the Packers off to an early lead. In the second half, Rodgers would add two more scores, one passing and one running. The Packers destroyed the Falcons 48-21 behind Rodgers’ 366 yards passing and 4 total touchdowns. Rodgers missed just five passes during the game going 31 of 36 and zero interceptions.

NFC Championship – Green Bay at Chicago
For the third time this season the Packers and Bears were matched up on the gridiron, but this time a trip to the Super Bowl was on the line. Rodgers struggled against the Bears defense, throwing for 244 yards on 17 of 30 passing. Rodgers did manage to score a rushing touchdown, but he also made two bad throws that were intercepted. This was by far the worst game for Rodgers during the six game stretch. But it didn’t matter, the Packers beat the Bears 21-14 and they were headed to Super Bowl XLV.

Super Bowl XLV – Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Before the game, everyone talked about the Packers youth vs. the Steelers experience. At the age of 28, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had already won two Super Bowls, while Rodgers was new to the big game. Once the game kicked off, Rodgers and the Packers settled into a familiar spot – playing with the lead. Two touchdown passes by Rodgers in the first half had the Packers up 21-10 at the intermission. In the second half, Rodgers struggled for a stretch during the third quarter, but snapped out of it with 5:59 left in the fourth quarter when he threw a 31-yard pass to Greg Jennings on 3rd and 10. To me, that throw was the biggest throw of Rodgers’ career. If the Packers don’t convert that third down, the Steelers would have gotten the ball back with just under six minutes to go. That conversion helped the Packers take an additional four minutes off the clock before kicking a field goal that gave them a six point lead. Rodgers was the clear choice for MVP in this game, throwing for 304 yards on 24 of 39 passes. He also protected the football extremely well, throwing three touchdowns and zero interceptions.

In Closing
I believe the best way to rate a quarterback is how well they perform in big games. During the six games I mentioned above, Rodgers was 134 of 197 (68%) for 1,727 yards, 16 total touchdowns (14 passing, 2 rushing) and three interceptions (all against the Bears). Rodgers has clearly proven he can win the big game and I expect him to continue to get better, which is a scary thought.

The better quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Aaron Rodgers

A friend of mine wrote an article recently that proclaimed Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers “the best quarterback drafted in the last decade.” The writer’s name is Peter Christian and he lays out a strong argument for Rodgers (read the full article here). However, I disagree with Peter and believe Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is the best quarterback drafted in the last 10 years. Since these two quarterbacks will be facing each other in Super Bowl XLV on Sunday I thought I should make my case for Big Ben.

Before you read the rest of this article, you must take the emotion out of the debate. Yes, Roethlisberger has done some terrible things in his past, but we’re not talking about character here. We are talking about who’s the better quarterback.

When Roethlisberger entered the league in 2004 as a rookie out of the University of Miami-Ohio, the plan was for him to sit behind Tommy Maddox and Charlie Batch. After injuries to both quarterbacks, Roethlisberger stepped in and won the next 14 games (including a playoff game). During that season, Roethlisberger and the Steelers beat the defending Super Bowl champion and previously undefeated New England Patriots, ending their NFL-record 21-game winning streak. Big Ben followed that game up with a win over another undefeated team, the Philadelphia Eagles. Later that year, Roethlisberger led the Steelers on a game winning drive in the playoffs against the New York Jets, which they won by a field goal. Roethlisberger set a NFL rookie record in 2004 with five comeback wins in the fourth quarter, and six game-winning drives in the fourth quarter/overtime (including the playoff game).

If you haven’t figured it out by now, let me make it clear, Ben Roethlisberger has performed exceptionally well in big games and that makes him the best quarterback drafted in the past decade. Yes, Aaron Rodgers (who is 27-years-old) has the stats, but Roethlisberger (who is 28-years-old) has the rings and a ton of records.

Look at Roethlisberger’s resume:

• He has two Super Bowl rings (2005 and 2008)
• He has the most comeback wins (19) and game-winning drives (25) through the first seven seasons of a player's career
• At age 23, he is the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl (Pittsburgh beat Seattle 21-10 in 2005)
• He has a 10-2 playoff record (Peyton Manning is 9-10, Rodgers is 3-1)
• He has the 4th highest career winning percentage (.704) as a starter in the regular season among quarterbacks with a minimum of 90 starts
• In the 2005 playoffs, the Steelers pulled off upsets at Indianapolis and Denver and also beat higher seeds Cincinnati and Seattle
• 51 wins as a starting quarterback in first five NFL seasons (NFL record)
• Second quarterback in NFL history, along with Peyton Manning, to register three perfect passing games during the regular season, and the only quarterback to ever register two perfect passing games in one regular season
• Highest postseason completion percentage – 61.1% (Min. 50 attempts)
• Highest postseason passer rating — 85.4

It’s easy to argue that Roethlisberger got help from his defense and running game several of these games. But the stat that sealed it for me is comeback wins (19) and game-winning drives (25). When the Steelers need a big play, Big Ben has come through a lot more often than Rodgers has. Look at Rodgers’ stats in close games, 2-12 in games decided by four points or fewer. Rodgers is not to blame for all of those 12 losses, and he may be turning a corner with the three impressive playoff wins, but he’s not close to Roethlisberger.

Another argument I’ll make for Roethlisberger is he’s throwing to less talented skill players. Hines Ward has had a great career, but he’s not a dynamic playmaker. Heath Miller is a fantastic possession tight end, but not very versatile. Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace are good, but not consistent enough to be called great. Rodgers is throwing to Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson – these are all guys who can stretch the field.

We have many more years ahead before this debate is finish. But as of right now, Ben Roethlisberger is the best quarterback drafted in the past ten years.

3 keys to Super Bowl XLV that nobody is talking about

For the next several days you’re going to hear a lot about Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. The two quarterbacks are preparing to lead the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV, but don’t be mistaken, this game is much bigger than these two players.

If you breakdown the stats from the regular season and the playoffs, we should be in store for an epic Super Bowl. The Steelers and Packers are very similar teams and the margin for error is going to be very slim on Super Bowl Sunday.

There are three stats that I believe will play a large role in determining who wins the game. They aren’t the most talked about stats, but I believe they are the most important stats when it comes to winning football games.
       
Third Down Offense vs. Defense
Teams that can turn third downs into first downs will find success in the NFL and Pittsburgh and Green Bay are two of the best in the league. During these playoffs, the Steelers offense has converted 52% of their third down attempts (13 of 25), while the Packers offense has converted 50% (18-36). They are the only teams in the 2011 playoffs with a third down conversion rate 50% or higher (2011 playoff avg. 39%). It’s pretty simple to understand, offenses that convert third downs stay on the field longer, get more opportunities to score and they wear down defenses.

As good as both offenses have been on third down, the defenses have been equally as impressive. During their three playoff games, the Packers defense has allowed just nine third down conversions
(9 of 36 – 25%). Meanwhile, in their two playoff wins, the Steelers defense has allowed 10 of 26 third down conversions – that’s 38.5% (2011 playoff avg. 45%).

I like looking at third down stats as an indicator for success because third down is a high pressure situation within the game. You can tell a lot about how clutch a player is by how he performs on third down. The team that wins on third down may very well win the game.

Red Zone Offense vs. Defense
When it comes to scoring points, these two teams are at the top of the playoff rankings. The Packers are first in points scored per game during the playoffs, averaging 30 points per game. While the Steelers have been just as good, averaging 27.5 points per game. What the Packers and Steelers have done well this postseason is score touchdowns when they get in the red zone. The Packers have been obscenely good inside the 20 yard line, as has the Steelers. The Packers have scored touchdowns on 9 of 12 red zone visits (3-3 @ Philly / 4-6 @ Atlanta / 2-3 @ Chicago), while the Steelers have converted on 6 of 9 red zone opportunities (4-6 vs. Baltimore / 2-3 vs. NY Jets).        

While both offenses have been exceptional inside the red zone, the defenses for the Packers and Steelers have been remarkably stout as well. In their three playoff games, the Packers have allowed teams just seven red zone opportunities (they’ve allowed 4 red zone touchdowns). In the Steelers two playoff games, they’ve allowed just five red zone chances (they've allowed three red zone touchdowns).

In a game that is so evenly matched, the team that is more successful in the red zone – both on offense and defense – will have an obvious advantage on the scoreboard, but also when comes to confidence. The defense that bends the most without breaking will give their team the best chance at winning the game.

Turnovers and Points Off Turnovers
There are several things that make these teams great, but perhaps the most important is their ability to make big plays on defense. Whether it’s a timely sack, an interception or fumble recovery, the Packers and Steelers are two of the best in the league.

In their three playoff games, the Packers defense has eight takeaways. Green Bay has knack of making big plays at the right time. In their games against Philadelphia and Chicago, the Packers sealed victory with game-ending interceptions. They’ve also returned two interceptions for touchdowns during these playoffs.

The Packers are also great at turning those turnovers into points. During their blowout victory over Atlanta, Green Bay scored 20 points off turnovers – including an interception for a touchdown late in the first half by Tramon Williams. If the Steelers are careless with the football, which they have had a tendency to do, expect the Packers to capitalize on Pittsburgh’s misfortunes.

Like the Packers, the Steelers also have an opportunistic defense. In their two playoff games, Pittsburgh has forced four turnovers. In their game with Baltimore, the Steelers turned three Ravens turnovers into 17 points. And during the AFC Championship Game against the Jets, the Steelers returned a fumble for a touchdown.

Opportunities for turnovers will be there for both of these defenses and the team that takes the most advantage of those takeaways will likely be the winner.

In Closing
The Steelers and the Packers were the two stingiest defenses during the regular season in terms of points allowed. Pittsburgh ranked number one in the league allowing 14.5 points/game, while the Packers finished ranked second allowing 15 points/game. The team that plays the best on defense will end up winning Super Bowl XLV.

When the game concludes on Sunday night, take a look at the three stats I’ve outlined above. If the winning team doesn’t have the edge in all three categories I will be surprised.

2011 Fantasy Football Scouting Report: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

2010 Stats (15 gms)	3922 yds.	28 TDs	11 INTs
2011 Projected	4295 yds.	30 TDs	11 INTs

 
Rodgers played at such a high level during the final six weeks of the 2010 NFL season (including playoffs). He will get Jermichael Finley back at tight end and running back Ryan Grant returns as well. Rodgers' is also a threat to run (2011 projection: 4 rushing TDs), which makes him an even more valuable fantasy football quarterback. The Packers offense will pick-up where they left off last season, which means a big year ahead for Rodgers.