Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Fantasy Football 2011: Week 5 Tuesday Takeaways

To call this NFL season a wacky one would be an understatement. It's downright ludicrous, crazy, insane. Six quarterbacks remain on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yards mark, New England Patriots WR Wes Welker is on track to catch 144 balls for 2,368(!!!) yards and 16 touchdowns and at his current pace, Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson will catch 28 touchdowns this year.

While offenses have been thriving, defenses have been sieves. However, not to be lost in the mediocrity is Minnesota Vikings DE Jared Allen (pictured). He has 8.5 sacks through five games and is on pace for a 27 sack season (Michael Strahan has the NFL record with 22.5 sacks). So yeah, it's been a ludicrous, crazy, insane season so far.

Wait, you want more proof? The Lions, San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills are a combined 13-2, while the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons all have losing records. Ludicrous, crazy, insane.

Every Tuesday The Source takes a look back at the weekend (and Monday night) that was in the NFL. Here are The Source's takeaways from week five.

1) If I were Mercury Morris and the '72 Miami Dolphins, I'd start getting worried about the Green Bay Packers joining my club. With an unstoppable offense and an improving defense, I don't see a loss on the Packers schedule.

2) It's Tim Tebow time in Denver and I couldn't be more excited about it. Tebow may not win many games under-center for the Broncos, but he will put up big fantasy points. In the final three games of last season (games Tebow started), he finished with 15, 17 and 21 fantasy points (standard scoring). Fantasy owners got a taste of what Tebow can do last week when he led the Broncos back against the San Diego Chargers, a game Denver eventually lost 29-24. Tebow finished with 79 yards passing, 38 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns (1 passing, 1 rushing) - that's 12 fantasy points in less than a half. Go get Tebow now!

3) Atlanta QB Matt Ryan needs a new nickname. Matty Ice is melting down late in games and it's led to the Falcons starting 2-3. Much like he did in Sunday night's 25-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Ryan has started games extremely well, but he's finished them poorly. In the five games Ryan has played this year, here are his stats by quarter:

  • 1st quarter - 75.7% 290 yards 3 TDs 1 Int
  • 2nd quarter - 61.2% 271 yards 1 TD 2 INTs
  • 3rd quarter - 53.2% 321 yards 1 TD 1 INTs
  • 4th quarter - 58.7% 420 yards 2 TDs 2 INTs
Ryan goes from a 75% passer to a 58% passer over the course of the game. And where is that big play offense with Roddy White and Julio Jones? All of Ryan's seven touchdown passes have come when the Falcons are in the redzone. How about the nickname: Matty Melt Down?

4) I think I'm over my obsession with Cincinnati Bengal wide receivers. I've now moved onto Buffalo Bills WRs. I'm mostly interested in them from a PPR standpoint, but it's also a healthier relationship considering the Bills are 4-1 and none of their WRs have a drug investigation pending (how does Jerome Simpson still get to play?). I was intrigued by the Bills WR group back when David Nelson started getting a ton of targets out of the slot. But then came Naaman Roosevelt and my mind was nearly blown (great name). Roosevelt is a little known WR from the University of Buffalo with shifty moves and good hands. Roosevelt saw a lot of snaps during Sunday's 31-24 win over the Philadelphia Eagles and ended the games with 5 catches for 41 yards (on 7 targets). Look for Roosevelt to be on the field more with starting WR Donald Jones expected miss 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury. Roosevelt will stay in the slot, which is a great place to be in Buffalo's offense, and former slot guy Nelson will move outside opposite WR Steve Johnson. If you're in a deep PPR league, Naaman Roosevelt is a name to remember (yaa-man).

5) Speaking of obscure names to remember, the Kansas City Chiefs have a new featured back and his name is Jackie Battle. Battle finished Sunday's game against the Indianapolis Colts with 119 yards on 19 carries, a game the Chiefs won 28-24. While Battle didn't find the endzone, he did force the Colts defense to focus on the run, which lead to a four touchdown day by QB Matt Cassel. Battle hits holes faster than Thomas Jones and finishes runs stronger than Dexter McCluster, which makes Battle a valuable commodity on fantasy waiver wire this week. Pick-up Battle and consider taking a flier on Cassel and WR Steve Breaston (2 TDs on Sunday) going forward. If Battle continues to run hard and keep defenses honest, this Chiefs offense can be (dare I say) explosive. They were pretty good last year when they had a consistent running game.

6) My Frank Gore apology (take 2): The San Francisco 49ers RB did it again, showing me once more that I was wrong. Two weeks ago, I suggested rookie RB Kendall Hunter should start getting more touches because he had looked more versatile than Gore. Gore responded by ripping off 127 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago against the Philadelphia Eagles and this past weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he rumbled for 125 yards and a score. That's 252 yards and 2 TDs since I ripped him. I guess motivation is born out of the keystrokes of The Source. Look for Gore to have another solid game in week six when he leads the 4-1 Niners into Detroit to face the unbeaten Lions on Sunday (BTW-Niners win this game).

7) The #SuckForLuck sweepstakes is down to two (maybe three) teams: Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts (dark horse: St. Louis Rams).

8) Where has Clay Matthews gone? In five games this season, the Green Bay Packers OLB has just one sack, putting him on pace for 3.5 on the year. Matthews has been a disruptive force since coming into the league, recording 23.5 sacks in his first two seasons. Maybe it's his quad, which has kept him from practicing much of this season, or maybe it's a lack of talent around him. The Packers lost DE Cullen Jenkins in free agency to the Philadelphia Eagles and DE Mike Neal has been sidelined all this season with a bum knee. Or maybe (the most likely case) he's just as good as ever, but now teams are using two blockers on him each play. Despite Matthews having just one sack, the Packers have sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times this season, good enough for ninth in the league. So to answer the question where has Matthews gone? He's the guy getting double-teamed every play and opening up opportunities for other players.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Fantasy Football 2011: Week 5 Waiver Wire

We've reached the point in the NFL season where bye weeks are now in play and fantasy line-ups need adjustment. This week: the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, St. Louis Rams, Baltimore Ravens and Washington Redskins have byes - which means no Ray Rice, no Tony Romo and no Dez Bryant. Also, it's likely injuries will impact your line-up this week, especially if you own Houston Texans WR Andre Johnson, who's out 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury.

The waiver wire is getting pretty thin and finding an every week starter becomes more difficult with each passing week. However, there are some bye week fill-ins worth taking a look at and some guys who could have an impact later in the season.

Ryan Torain, RB, Washington Redskins
Even though the Redskins are off in Week 5, Torain is worth picking up. Torain had 19 carries for 135 yards against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday and looked like best runner in Washington. Torain is worth adding in all league formats, and especially for owners who have Tim Hightower or Roy Helu. But be warned about Torian, he plays for Mike Shanahan. Shanahan has a tendency to keep fantasy owners guessing more than opposing defenses on who will get the most carries from week-to-week. Regardless, add Torain - he's the best of the running free agents.

Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots
After a solid preseason, Ridley got drafted in many leagues as a late-round sleeper. However, after three less than impressive games (where he barely touched the ball), he has a chance to play bigger role in New England's high-powered offense. With Danny Woodhead injured, Ridley took advantage of his first extended playing time of the season and rushed for 97 yards on ten carries and scored his first-career NFL touchdown. BenJarvus Green-Ellis still figures to be the main ball carrier for the Patriots, but Ridley certainly showed what he can do. With that said, Bill Belichick is just like Shanahan in that he keeps fantasy owners guessing on who will get the ball from week-to-week. Ridley is still worth a roster spot, but not a starting spot.

Jacoby Jones, WR, Houston Texans
With Andre Johnson out 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury, Jones looks to be the most likely candidate to replace him. While it would be crazy to think Jones will match Johnson's offensive production, I think Jones is still a very good addition. If you recall last season when Johnson was out with an injury, Jones had 10 catches for 185 yards in the two games. Jones is a good fill-in WR if you need a bye week replacement, but don't plan on having him on your roster once Johnson is healthy and playing again.

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
It's becoming more clear each week that Brown is emerging as the Steelers number two WR. He has outplayed Emmanuel Sanders and he has younger legs than Hines Ward. On Sunday vs. Houston, Brown led the Steelers in targets (he also led the Steelers in targets in week 3). Brown had huge preseason so he may not be available in your league. But if he is, he's the WR with the most upside going forward.

Tim Tebow, QB, Denver Broncos (pictured)
Maybe it was the pro-Tebow billboards that swayed me, but it might be time to add Tebow to your fantasy roster. His struggles have been well documented and he may not be a very good NFL quarterback, but he's already proven that he can be a fantasy football stud. In the final three games of last season, Tebow finished with 15, 17 and 21 fantasy points (standard scoring). His ability to run and throw makes him just as valuable as (dare I say) Michael Vick and Cam Newton. Go get him now before it's too late.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

2011 Fantasy Football: Week 4 Tuesday Takeaways

We're a quarter of the way through the NFL season and some things are beginning more clear. It's clear that the Green Bay Packers are the elite team in the league and they have all the makings of a dynasty. It also looks like defense are still way behind offenses when it comes to execution.

The offensive numbers being put up each week have been staggering. In fact, there are six(!) quarterbacks currently on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yardage record of 5,084 (Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers (pictured), Philip Rivers and Tony Romo).

Every Tuesday The Source takes a look back at the weekend (and Monday night) that was in the NFL. Here are The Source's takeaways from week four.

1) Mr. Rodgers officially joined Mr. Brady in the MVP candidate neighborhood.

2) Okay, it's official, the Minnesota Vikings are officially in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. It's to imagine things getting much worse for the 0-4 purple, but it will when rookie Christian Ponder gets thrown to the wolves. Sidenote on #SuckForLuck: the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins are worse than the Vikings.

3) After a terrible week one, Tampa Bay RB LeGarrette Blount is gaining steam and looks like the fantasy player I thought he'd be. In the last three games he's rushed for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns. While his performance has improved, look for him to take a step back this weekend when he faces a San Francisco defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher since November 2009 (the Niners held Philadelphia Eagles RB LeSean McCoy to 18 yards rushing in week 3).

4) So much for thinking San Diego Chargers RB Ryan Mathews had a strangle hold on the Chargers featured running back spot. After a two touchdown performance in week 3, Mathews split time with Mike Tolbert again in week 4 and Tolbert vultured a one-yard TD. Good luck figuring this one out each week. The good news for Mathews owners, he's still healthy.

5) The Houston Texans got RB Arian Foster back at just the right time. The Texans will be without superstar WR Andre Johnson for at least 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury he sustained in week 3's win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Look for Foster to get a healthy dose of carries with Johnson out and look for QB Matt Schuab's production to drop as well.

5) How is Jerome Simpson still on the field? If you're a faithful reader than you know I have an unhealthy fixation on the Cincinnati Bengals WR2. I think anyone who lines up opposite rookie WR A.J. Green has value, Green is a superstar in the making. With that said, I want to know how Simpson, who caught 3 passes for 26 yards Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, hasn't been arrested for his role in a sting where police found 8.5 pounds of marijuana at his house. I know we must wait for the process to work its way through, but geez, quit leaving us Bengals-WR2-loving-fantasy-owners in a lurch. Until this Simpson case (I know, not very original) gets resolved, avoid playing him and WR Andre Caldwell. Right now they are stealing each others targets.

6) Last week I proclaimed Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo 'Captain Comeback' - a name I ripped from former QB and current Niners head coach Jim Harbaugh. Now I need to rip it away from Romo and give it to Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman. In his three seasons as a starter, Freeman has eight fourth quarter comebacks, including two already this year (week 2 @ MIN, week 4 vs. INDY).

7) I need to apologize to San Francisco 49ers RB Frank Gore. Last week, I suggested rookie RB Kendall Hunter should start getting more touches because he had looked more versatile than Gore. Gore responded by ripping off 127 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's come-from-behind win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Gore's performance was even more impressive when you consider he rushed just 15 times and was playing on a gimpy ankle. Keep Gore in your starting line-up and Hunter on your bench, at least for now.

8) If you reached and overdrafted Washington Redskins RB Tim Hightower, you're probably cursing Mike Shanahan right about now. But let's be honest, Washington's backfield shuffle was bound to happen - we're talking about Shanahan here. During the preseason all signs pointed to Hightower being the guy in the Skins' run-first offense. For a couple of weeks that looked to be the case, until Ryan Torain came back. Now Torain, who had 19 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against the St. Louis Rams, looks like the best runner in Washington. Hightower and rookie RB Roy Helu each carried the ball eight times, gaining 24 and 35 yards respectively. Good luck trying to figure out Shanahan's backfield rotation from week-to-week. But if last Sunday is any indication, Torain will be the lead back in Washington going forward.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Fantasy Football 2011 Waiver Wire: Week 4

With NFL bye weeks coming up next week, now's the time to make sure that your team is covered when your stars have the week off. Even though you may not need a quarterback, running back or wide receiver, it's always smart to upgrade your roster when you can. Here are some guys who might be worth a look.

Jason Campbell, QB, Oakland Raiders
Campbell has a favorable match-up this week against a New England defense that's giving up a ton of points to opposing quarterbacks. Campbell is surrounded by weapons this year, including RB Darren McFadden and rookie WR Denarius Moore. Campbell isn't a quarterback you can rely on every week, in fact, he's been consistently average his entire career. However, if you're desperate this week for a quarterback, he's a good pick-up.

Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots
Ridley (pictured) got his first extended opportunity to play in week 3 and looked solid. Ridley carried six times for 42 yards in New England's loss to Buffalo and outplayed starter RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. While it's too early to call Ridley the front-runner in New England, he could takeover more of the workload. However, the Patriots are a pass-first team and running backs often get lost on their offensive mix. While Ridley's a risky fantasy play each week, he is certainly a guy who should be owned in most leagues.

Kendall Hunter, RB, San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh said RB Frank Gore will be 'good to go' when the Niners face the Philadelphia Eagles in week four. Gore sprained an ankle in the Niners week three win over the Cincinnati Bengals, but even before that injury he's been less than impressive. Hunter has shown good versatility and looks like a good young runner. Consider Hunter a good waiver wire guy to stash on your bench and he's a must pick-up player if you own Gore.

Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
I'm not a huge proponent of rushing out and picking up Scott unless you own RB Cedric Benson. The common believe is that Benson will be suspended for three games for his offseason troubles and Scott will become Cincinnati's feature back. Scott only has eight carries this season for 23 yards, so he's been rarely used by the Bengals. With bye weeks coming up, consider Scott a good waiver wire guy and he's a must pick-up player if you own Benson.

Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans
With Kenny Britt done for the year with an ACL injury, the belief is Washington will be the main benefactor. However, much of Washington's early season success has been because of the single coverage he's getting from defenses - because of Britt. I'm fairly certain Washington doesn't have the talent to replace Britt's offensive output each week, but he is definitely worth a roster spot, and maybe even a place in your starting line-up.

Donald Jones, WR, Buffalo Bills
I recommended Bills WR David Nelson last week, now it's Jones' turn for some fantasy respect. Jones is the number two receiver on one of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses and is on the field a lot. While he ranks behind Steve Johnson and Nelson in targets, catches and yards - he's still worth a look in deeper leagues. However, don't expect him to be an every week fantasy receiver.